Economy Predictions

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Jesper Koll came and spoke in Nagoya a week or so ago, and his basic account of things is that Japan will be fine into the future. Jesper points out the share amount of R&D that Japanese companies do, are doing and will continue to do compared to other countries of the world. Koll believes that this will hold Japan strong into the future. The general indication was that things will be tough for another 12 months, but that things would begin to fall into place again after this.
What was very evident from Kolls presentation, the same message that I have heard from other Japanese economists / university professors in the past week, is Japan's dependence on exports. Demand internally in Japan is simply something that, even with a good economy, does not paint a pretty picture; less population, smaller workforce, growing ratio of senior citizens etc. I would also point my finger at the Japanese education system; there are less kids in Japan now, but are they receiving the correct education for the future ahead?

All good companies in Japan are going to need to turn to the rest of the world to drive their profits and grow their market share into the future. Japan's self sufficiency rate is down in the 40 percentile. For foreigners in Japan, this is a hint of one place to look to in the future. Japanese companies have to continue to be global and to export and they are going to need help doing it.

In terms of a shorter term prediction for the future, I was talking with one of Japan's better known foreign entrpreneurs today, and he indicated that we are not out of the woods yet. Obviously, this only one person's prediction, but he can see the US dollar crashing again before the end of the year, which he mentioned would pull down the sharemarket with it. Obviously, in the short-term this would be very harmful to Japan's exports and therefore the economy we are trying to recover in! Look out for a temporary set back before the end of the year!