Relocation- What's happening in Japan and Asia

Today, Brookfield announced that they have acquired Prudential / Pricoa's real estate and relocation business in a bold move that puts Brookfield at number 2 behind Cartus. Cartus itself last year acquired "Primacy", and in a bold move from regional to global relocation we have also seen Santa Fe acquire Wridgways in Australia and Interdean in Europe.

So, we are definately seeing some movement in the relocation space, but how do I see things from a relocation perspective in Japan and Asia?

I am feeling 3 strong areas of change.

1. The Big Are Getting Bigger
Cartus, Brookfield and Santa Fe are great examples of the big getting bigger. You can add into their space SIRVA, and you have the big guys in relocation. Large multi-national companies generally will choose one of these big panthers to handle relocation management, especially if you have 1,000 or more people in terms of your mobility population. The big weren't so big, 2-3 years ago, back when we had Primacy, GMAC and Interdean as seperate entities, and weren't so well defined. Other players such as Weichert, MIGroup, Paragon were also in the mix, and although it was known that some were bigger than others, there wasn't a great deal of space between all of these companies back then. Now, there is, and my gut feeling is that the smaller relocation management companies will begin to struggle, unless they have a very focussed area of specialty. I would describe our friends at "Weichert" as doing an excellent job with this- they know exactly who they want to be in relocation, and they are not trying to be Cartus or Brookfield. This is not the case with many of the RMCs I see. In Japan, we are seeing more and more business coming through the big panthers, and less and less business from the smaller global relocation companies.

2. Regional Relocation Increases
In Japan, over the last 12- 18 months, we have felt a definate increase in business from regional relocation providers. Before becoming "global" Santa Fe was a good example of this, but we are now seeing an increase in business from our Asia Relocation Networks, from our European Relocation Networks, and indeed from our US Relocation Networks. Being able to provide a "regional solution" is becoming an important relocation tool. This means belonging to meaningful regional networks; in our case NCompass / Orientations and TIRA in Asia, and maintaining good relationships within the region, and with other regional providers outside Asia.

3. Moving Back to Direct Providers
We knew that the values of a good "direct relationship" would be discovered eventually, and after bad outsourcing experiences that complicated and added little value to the process, we are seeing certain types of clients interested in going back to the good old direct way of doing things; faster, more transparent, more flexible...... good old "relationship" business.

We are gearing up for more and more of 1, 2 and 3 in 2012.

All the very best for the festive season!

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Mercer Quality of Living Survey- Best Places to Relocate!

The below details were announced by Mercer today;

MERCER SURVEY SUMMARY
• European cities dominate worldwide quality of living rankings
• Vienna ranks highest for quality of living; Baghdad ranks lowest
• Honolulu and San Francisco are the top-ranked US cities for overall quality of living, but Canadian cities dominate the new personal safety ranking
• Luxembourg ranks highest for personal safety; Baghdad ranks lowest

Vienna has the best living standard in the world, according to the Mercer 2011 Quality of Living Survey. Zurich and Auckland follow in second and third place, respectively, and Munich is in fourth with Düsseldorf and Vancouver sharing fifth place. Frankfurt is in seventh followed by Geneva in eighth, while Copenhagen and Bern share ninth place. In the US, Honolulu (29) and San Francisco (30) are the highest-ranking cities, followed byBoston (36). Chicago and Washington, DC, are both ranked 43rd. Detroit (71) is the lowest rankingof the US cities that Mercer surveys.

Globally, the cities with the lowest quality of living are Khartoum, Sudan (217); Port-au-Prince, Haiti (218); N’Djamena, Chad (219); and Bangui, Central African Republic (220). Baghdad, Iraq(221) ranks last.

Mercer’s Quality of Living index list covers 221 cities, ranked against NewYork as the base city. This year, the survey separately identifies those cities with the highest personal safety ranking based on internal stability, crime levels, law enforcement effectiveness and the host country’sinternational relations.

Luxembourg tops this personal safety ranking, followed by Bern, Helsinkiand Zurich – all ranked at number two. Vienna ranks fifth while Geneva and Stockholm both ranksixth. Baghdad (221) is the world’s least safe city, followed by N’Djamena, Chad (220); Abidjan,Côte d'Ivoire (219); Bangui, Central African Republic (218); and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (217).

The highest-ranking US cities on the personal safety list are Chicago, Honolulu, Houston and SanFrancisco, all of which ranked 53.

The top-ranking cities for personal safety and security are in politically stable countries with good international relations and relatively sustainable economic growth. Most of the low-scoring cities are in countries with civil unrest, high crime levels and little law enforcement. AmericasCanadian cities dominate the top of the ranking for this region. Vancouver (5) has the best qualityof living and is followed by Ottawa (14), Toronto (15) and Montreal (22). Honolulu (29) and SanFrancisco (30) are the highest-ranking US cities. In Central and South America, Pointe-à-Pitre,Guadeloupe (63) ranks highest, followed by San Juan, Puerto Rico (72) and Montevideo,Uruguay (77). Port-au-Prince, Haiti (218) ranks lowest in the region.

Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe (40) is again the highest-ranking city in Central and South America followed by Nassau, Bahamas (66); San Juan,Puerto Rico (79); and Panama City, Panama (92). At the other end of the personal safety scale, Caracas, Venezuela (205); Port-au-Prince, Haiti (202); Bogotá, Colombia (196); and Kingston, Jamaica (192) rank lowest in the region.

EUROPE
Vienna is the European city with the highest quality of living. German and Swiss cities dominate the top of the ranking, with three cities each in the top 10. Zurich (2) is followed by Munich (4), Düsseldorf (5), Frankfurt (7) and Geneva (8), while Bern shares ninth place with Copenhagen. In the next tier are Amsterdam (12), Hamburg (16), Berlin (17), Luxembourg (19), Stockholm (20), Brussels (22), Nurnberg (24) and Dublin (26). Paris ranks 30 and is followed by Oslo (33), Helsinki (35) and London (38). Lisbon is number 41, Madrid is at 43 and Rome ranks 52. Prague, Czech Republic (69) is the highest-ranking Eastern European city, followed by Budapest, Hungary(73); Ljubljana, Slovenia (75); Vilnius, Lithuania (79) and Warsaw, Poland (84). The lowest ranking European city is Tbilisi, Georgia (214).

With seven cities in the top 10, European cities also fare well in the personal safety ranking. Luxembourg ranks highest followed by Bern, Helsinki and Zurich, which all rank second. Vienna(5) is ahead of Geneva and Stockholm (both rank 6). In Eastern Europe, Ljubljana (30) and Prague (47) rank highest for personal safety, whereas Moscow (199) and Tbilisi (215) rank lowest.

ASIA PACIFIC
Auckland (3) is the highest-ranking city for quality of living in the Asia-Pacific region and isfollowed by Sydney (11), Wellington (13), Melbourne (18) and Perth (21). The highest-rankingAsian cities are Singapore (25) and Tokyo (46). Hong Kong (70), Kuala Lumpur (76), Seoul (80)and Taipei (85) are other major Asian cities ranked in the top 100. Meanwhile, Dhaka, Bangladesh (204); Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (206); and Dushanbe, Tajikistan (208) rank lowest in the region.

In eighth place, Singapore ranks highest for personal safety, followed by Auckland and Wellington– both ranked 9. Canberra, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney all rank 25, and all the Japanese cities on the list (Tokyo, Kobe, Nagoya, Osaka and Yokohama) rank 31. The region’s lowest-ranking city for personal safety is Karachi, Pakistan (216).

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
Dubai, UAE (74), ranks highest for quality of living across the Middle East and Africa and is followed by Abu Dhabi, UAE (78); Port Louis, Mauritius (82) and Cape Town, South Africa (88). Johannesburg ranks 94 and is followed by Victoria, Seychelles (95); Tel Aviv (99); Muscat, Oman(101) and Doha, Qatar (106). Africa has 18 cities in the bottom 25, including Bangui, CentralAfrican Republic (220); N’Djamena, Chad (219); Khartoum, Sudan (217) and Brazzaville, Congo(214).
Baghdad (221) is the lowest-ranking city both regionally and globally.

At 23, Abu Dhabi has the highest personal safety ranking in the Middle East and is followed by Muscat (29), Dubai (39) and Doha (67). Port Louis (59) and Victoria (79) are the only African cities in the top 100. Elsewhere in the region, Tunis, Tunisia ranks 140; Casablanca, Morocco is at 147 and Cairo, Egypt ranks 176. At 185, Algiers, Algeria is followed by Tehran, Iran (188) and towards the bottom of the list is Tripoli, Libya (204). In terms of personal safety, Baghdad (221) is the lowest-ranking city regionally and globally along with N’Djamena, Chad (220); Abidjan, Côted’Ivoire (219); Bangui, Central African Republic (218) and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of theCongo (217).

Creative Thinking in Relocation

I was privleged to attend a seminar run by Grant Bosnick on CrEaTiVe ThInKiNg last week, and here is a summary of what I learned that might help in creating more innovation in our relocation space;

IMAGINATION
To spark your imagination, you need different "Points of View". You can get these by playing "What if....." games. eg. What if I only had 1 dollar and had to start a business? Or alternatively, you can ask "If I was such and such...." games eg. If I was Jack Welch, CEO of GE, what would I do in this situation?

ASSOCIATION
To spark creativity, a great way is to take 2 different themes and associate them; this helps to create something that is the synergy of two parts, and what you wouldn't have necessarily considered if you just saw them apart. eg. Milk and Lawn Mowers- healthy smoothies from a machine that harvests vegetables directly from your garden- what an invention! This can work great when using the topics as "stepping stones" for brainstorming.

INSPIRATION
Often simple things can inspire ideas. eg. Inflate your goals so they are ridiculously unachievable. eg, We will lease a "Healthy Smoothy Machine" to every senior citizen in Japan, so that they don't need medical attention so regularly. We will ask for government subsidies, as we will be able to lower the medical bill for all Japan.
Or often, inspiration can come when doing some other concentrated activity of focus; eg. when walking around, when in the shower, when driving, when riding your bike and even when sitting on the toilet!

BRAINSTORMING
The idea with brain storming is list as many things as possible, and then go back and;
- Look for the gaps. What is missing, what don't you have?
- How can you group or "cluster" your ideas. How many different themes or focuses do you have?
Doing this, you can create and build ideas, and then take these ideas and compare them, which then enables you to expand the "big picture".

SEEDS AND GERMINATING
It is important to start thinking about things early. Our mind is like a garden, so we need to plant the seeds as soon as possible and then look for synergies.
- Write things down early
- Come back to them and add to them, connect them, and grow them into something much bigger. Then pick the best fruit from within them

REST PERIODS
This is recorded under "inspiration" also, but we need to create "Rest Periods" during our day; relaxtion points when we are just doing one thing and our mind can wander a little; eg. while swimming, while standing in the train, while taking out the garbage, while cleaning your teeth......

Some things to think about to enhance your creative thinking!

The Great Divergence

This is a very interesting view of the way the world is changing in front of us

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Mercer Releases 2011 Cost of Living Survey

- Luanda in Angola is the world’s most expensive city for expatriates
- Karachi is the cheapest city in the world
- The top 10 ranked cities dominated by Africa, Asia and Europe - - 9 of the top 10
- London drops one place to rank 18
- Singapore and São Paolo join the top 10 list
- New York drops five places to rank 32
- Los Angeles drops 22 places to rank 77
- Tokyo remains in 2nd place
- Moscow is in 4th place
- Osaka comes in at 6th
- Hong Kong drops to 9th

Karachi (214) is ranked as the world’s least expensive city, and the survey found that Luanda, in the top place, is more than three times as costly as Karachi. Recent world events, including natural disasters and political upheavals, have impacted the rankings for many regions through currency fluctuations, cost inflation for goods and services and volatility in accommodation prices.

The most expensive city in Asia is Tokyo (2), followed by Osaka (6). Singapore (8) has joined the list of the world’s top 10 most expensive cities and is followed by Hong Kong (9). Nagoya (11) in Japan is up eight places whereas Seoul (19) is down five. Other highly ranked Asian cities are Beijing (20), Shanghai (21), Guangzhou (38), Shenzhen (43) and Taipei (52).

“Most Asian cities have moved up in the ranking as availability for expatriate accommodation prices is limited and demand is high."

Currency fluctuations, inflation, political instability and natural disasters are all factors that influence the cost of living for expatriates. It is essential that employers understand their impact, for cost-containment purposes, but also to ensure they retain talented employees by offering competitive compensation packages." To view Mercer's Cost comparison between 21 major cities worldwide please click here, and for a comparison between 21 U.S. cities please click here. Further information can be found here;

I think it is very obvious that deflationary Japan is high on the rankings due the the very strong yen to the dollar, pound and euro, and not due to the demand for accommodation.......

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The H&R Group is MORE THAN RELOCATION!
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Leadership in Relocation: What's Holding You Back?

I read this book, and it was so good that I have summarized it for everyone!

Here are 10 bold steps that define gutsy leaders in relocation; thanks to Robert J. Herbold.



1. Devise a Demanding Game Plan to Confront Reality
You need to lay out a clear vision, develop aggressive strategies to achieve that vision and select actionable measures so that you know you are achieving the strategies. As the old saying goes “You can’t manage what you don’t measure”, so you must measure the vision to make sure the job is getting done, and also make sure that your strategies are actually helping to achieve the vision. If they are not, you may need to change them.

2. Staff For Success
You must maintain a high-quality performance appraisal system. This makes every member of your organization aware of his or her strengths or weaknesses, and maintains a track record over months and years that enable you to defend any decision to move poor performers out. You need to confront poor performance early, and you want to stretch and challenge your best people to prepare them for crucial needs when they arise. It is also advisable to move your people around every 2-3 years.
Use employee surveys to help determine, which managers are strong leaders and which are struggling, and in general to gauge whether you have the right team to achieve your game plan.

3. Clean Up The Sloppiness
You must keep systems and processes as simple as possible. The systems must be robust and not allow endless exceptions, but you also need to make sure they don’t become complicated and complex. Ideally, one person should be held responsible for each process or system, as sharing the burden makes it difficult to keep accountability. You want to have minimal layers of management with maximum spans (up to 8 people per manager?).

4. Institutionalize Tight-Fisted Cost Control
Keep any budgets under your control under constant pressure. Always be looking for ways to decrease cost to less expensive vendors or by outsourcing to another part of the world. Consider outsourcing non-strategic activities, but make sure to choose the right location for strategic activities. You must know your budget well, and you must kill obvious cost mistakes or unsuccessful projects as soon as possible.

5. Insist on Functional Excellence
You must maintain strong functional excellence in areas such as finance and accounting, HR, tax, general administration, etc. Functional excellence comes from driving simplicity, efficiency and effectiveness in the company through these functional areas. Not taking this seriously, or not having strong functional management that challenges business units can fragment the overall efforts of the company or put your company at risk. This means considering not only costs, but safety, worker health and general risk management. Staff in these positions should be tough and stubborn, principled and always strive for simplicity and be on the outlook for new trends.
Furthermore, operations should be given enough flexibility to operate on their own and not be too centralized. There should always be good focus placed on the projects operations is committed to; you don’t want to take on so many projects that there is no focus, Focused projects should be lead by your best people, but they should not further burden already burdened groups. Clearly define what the focus is and report it back often to your employees.

6. Create a Culture of Innovation
You must highly value Innovation. The book refers to “Commodity Hell”; that you never know when your competition is going to launch their next product that will drive your product into commodity hell and you end up competing on price only. To avoid commodity hell and everything depending on price, you need to continuously innovate ideas that make your products exciting and distinctive in the market place. You must communicate the goal of innovation regularly, you must encourage and inspire innovation and you must reward innovation.
Fresh thinking should be rewarded also. However, you do want to define success as being fresh ideas and excellence in execution and you should only reward innovations that have a measurable impact.

7. Demand Accountability and Decisiveness; Avoid Consensus
You should set clear accountability, goals and measures for innovation. However, you want to get away from consensus decision making. You need to clearly make certain people accountable for innovation; put one person in charge. Carefully define what success looks like and agree on the measurement of success, then keep the focus on impact not on internal politics. Some input you receive will be useful, other input could be just to protect the status quo or someone’s position, so you need someone accountable that can work through all of this. However, when you discover that something is not working, you must kill it quickly; once again, not with consensus decision-making.

8. Exploit Inflection Points
This is making use of opportunities that arise due to changes in laws, technology, etc. It is the ability to “trend spot” and find new ways to bring things to market or find an emerging customer trend. Be the first company in your industry to do things; make this part of your culture, and encourage early experimentation.

9. Value Ideas from Anywhere
Everyone should be on the lookout for ideas. Create a culture whereby ideas are shared from the top to bottom of your organization. One important part of collecting ideas is visiting and observing your clients to understand their likes, dislikes, habits and practices. You must understand your customer’s experiences.

10. Shake Up the Organization
In order to be innovative, your organization needs to be flexible and ready to change. You can’t afford your organization to become convinced that everything is OK and there is no need to change. So, you
- Shouldn’t let people get set in their ways- often you need to insert fresh talent to remedy stagnant situations
- Shouldn’t always make the obvious choice; surprise people a little with staffing decisions
- Should always try to evolve and encourage your employees to use new technologies or learn them, etc.
You need to continuously reorganize around your new efforts.

I highly recommend this leadership book; http://www.amazon.com/Whats-Holding-You-Back-Leaders/dp/0470639016

On The Ground in Japan: What am I seeing in the relocation industry?

Here is what I am seeing from the viewpoint of a relocation company active in Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka. After the quake, temporarily many people left. Many overseas, many to Osaka. After GW, most came back; we even had people leaving from Nagoya, but most came back. Looking at international schools as one good indicator, you will see that 90% or more are now back; some nationalities being a little more conservative than others. The German school in Tokyo, for example, didn't open back up for sometime after the quake. But overall, you are seeing 90- 95% of people back.

Now here we are in June. June / July / August is the busiest relocation season. There are always lots of people leaving Japan during this period. Don't forget this! Even without the quake, in any year there is significant movement during this time; some years more than others, and sometimes more inbound than outbound, and vice-versa. The net trend is that outbound is up. Talk to moving companies and they will tell you it is a record year. Yes, there are more people leaving this year than normal. Many are leaving a little earlier than they would have. However, amongst this we are also seeing people coming to Tokyo also. Real estate is moving. If you don't put an application on popular properties immediately, someone else gets the property and you miss out. There is inbound activity, so it is not all outbound!

Now, we are seeing resistance from families. This is too be understood considering the nuclear issues. Some are leaving their families at home or somwhere else for the interim. Some companies are choosing to send more single and married employees without children, or more senior members.

With regard to Osaka and companies moving their headquarters, there maybe one or two companies that have moved their plans forward quickly. However, on the ground there is no evidence or sign of a huge influx of companies into Osaka, nor Nagoya. Companies are certainly talking more about contigency plans and spreading the risk, and there are definately companies seeking information on the options, but any rumor that hordes of companies are deciding to get out of Tokyo and set up in Osaka is completely unfounded right now.

It is my view that over the next 12- 24 months some companies will choose to spread their risk and move operations around a little. However,
1. As time goes by the focus on spreading the risk will shift to the next "crisis" or the next "priority" and a high percentage of talks will stop just there AND
2. The economy in Japan is not in good shape, and therefore when many of these companies do the cost analysis and see the size of the bill to move their operations (moving offices is the easy part..... moving employees away from where their families and homes are is more difficult) many talks will stop right there too. This is off course assuming that as time goes by that the reactor issues are slowly brought under control. I would be interested in hearing of others predictions.....

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Relocation Volume By Country in 2010

A recent survey by Cartus shows that the relocation volume to Japan has dropped away a little since 2006. According to the Cartus survey, Japan used to sit in 6th place in the world in terms of global relocation volume, but in the 4 years since 2006, Japan has dropped to 9th place.

Of those countries in the top 10 in 2010, the countries who have jumped up positions are Singapore, India (both of whom were in the top ten in 2010 but are now ranked higher) and Hong Kong that has jumped into the top 10 from 11th position in 2006.

Dropping out of the top 10 is France, and then dropping out of the list of 25 countries entirely is Saudi Arabia, Austria and Thailand.

New to the list of 25 countries with the most relocation volume is Panama, South Korea and Poland.

Read more here!! http://mwne.ws/mUpX4t

Let’s move Japan’s capital to Tohoku!

I have borrowed this entry on a discussion board dated May 14, 2011 from Shigehiko Togo, Former Correspondent of the Washington Post Tokyo Bureau, as I really liked this out of the box initiative (his entry is in italics). Japan will probably never do it, but this is the kind of thinking Japan needs in this age.
　
Based on the experience which Japan has suffered by the 3.11 disasters, how about relocating our capital to Tohoku, Northeast area of the Honshu island?

There are three reasons why I am writing this.

First, from safety perspective:

From southern Chiba Prefecture toward Miyazaki Prefecture coast of the Pacific, three major gigantic quakes parallel to the Honshu islands are anticipated by scholars. The possibility of an earthquake with an epicenter directly under Tokyo is often discussed.
The future possibility of a big earthquake in Tohoku, both plate type and active fault type should be seriously examined by scholars but after 3.11, isn’t it Tohoku itself an area relatively safe from earthquake and tsunami disasters in coming next several centuries ?
Furthermore, we now know from the experiences of 3.11, where are the areas relatively safe or more dangerous within Tohoku regarding earthquake and tsunami disasters, including the danger caused and to be caused by nuclear reactors.
These are the reasons why I think it is adequate to propose Tohoku as a place of new capital of Japan from safety point of view.

Second, from recovery perspective:

Needless to say, if we will relocate the capital in Tohoku, it will be the very core of the recovery project. Both material and mental impact will be tremendous. The scale of the project will be immense. It will be incomparable to any of already proposed plans by the national and local governments, parties and city planners etc.

Third, from historical perspective:

Looking back the history of Japan, I think we cannot deny the fact that some political group or tribe located in the Kyushu island had moved toward east and located its political and cultural center in Kansai area sometimes in an ancient days. Since then, many capitals such as Fujiwara, Nara or Kyoto had been located in Kinki area in Kansai. After the Meiji Restoration, the capital again moved toward east and Edo became Tokyo, which literally means something like “East Center”.
Tohoku area was never a center of Japan. By moving the capital again toward east, can’t we say that for the first time in history, all Japanese islands would have fulfilled its historical responsibility?

I will try to write down a concrete plan of how to realize this proposal so that it would not end just as a dream.
The relocation must start as a step of recovery project, must take a step by step process and must maintain a reasonable relation with Tokyo.
Now, what is a capital for the Japanese. In one word, that is a place where the Emperor resides. So the construction and the declaration of the new capital must start by moving the Imperial Palace to Tohoku. The Palace includes the residence of Their Majesties, imperial office and the Three Holy Shrines.

Diets, governments, other national functions and diplomatic core would move eventually with careful balance between the existing Tokyo. From that perspective, it may be desirable if the new capital would be placed somewhere not too distant from Tokyo.
The basic character of the new city will be “coexistence with nature” and “revival of Japanese tradition” as is already stated in many proposals. We should not try to rebuild gigantic buildings such as in Kasumigaseki in Tokyo. It should be designed based on a concept of “low rise buildings in a forest”. I expect scientists, engineers and construction companies to develop a new material for housing, a light, tenacious and not too expensive one in harmony with maximum utilization of wood and other “natural” resources.

At the end of the last century, the government had seriously examined to move the Diet from Tokyo and construct a city of 100.000 populations. As for the candidate area, one, Tochigi and Fukushima group and another, Aichi and Gifu group had been nominated. The fee was estimated to be about four trillion yen. If we would move the capital in Tohoku, it will be sure to cost more, but recent estimations of the recovery fee from 3.11 disasters indicates that the amount would not be unreachable. It should be necessary that the central government would take a strong leadership such as prohibition of land speculation and temporal restriction of private right.

Ken Matsumoto, an active businessman who lives in Ishinomaki City in Miyagi Prefecture who runs a precision machines factory which was heavily damaged by the tsunami of 3.11, strongly asserts that the recovery must take place from a bottom up energy of local inhabitants. But for the new capital idea, he said “Our place, Tohoku was never a center of Japan. It will be a historical miracle if the capital would move here. Nothing would encourage us more than that. It would stimulate for sure all Japanese people to stand and to work for the new dream.”

In the media, I have seen and heard, Yoshimi Watanabe, President of Your Party(Minna-no-To) mentioning about the relocation of the capital. Their party homepage writes that the Diet should move to Fukushima Prefecture. Jitsuro Terashima, a prominent scholar-commentator referred to the partial relocation of the capital to Tohoku. But as far as I know, there are no serious, comprehensive proposition on this subject.

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The Situation in Japan- Friday 8th April

This information is a few days old, as I have been travelling, but as I have done several times already, please allow me to share with you the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir John Beddington's of April 7th. It is a good overview, and shows that things are slowly getting better with regard to the nuclear plant issue;

Fukushima:Overview
Sir John begun the briefing by saying that we should not relax completely on the subject of Fukushima - the situation is still serious – but that there has been significant progress. This “progress” is the reason why the FCO travel advice was relaxed last night. Sir John explained that the Japanese have now established power to the nuclear plant and are using fresh water to cool the reactors. These two facts, coupled with the natural progressive decay of iodine, mean that any effects of radiation are significantly reduced. From time to time, Sir John went on, there will be small releases of radiation into the environment, but this will be nothing like the radiation produced by the meltdown of a reactor or an explosion in a fuel pond. TEPCO is now injecting nitrogen into the main containment unit – mainly unit 1 – in order to cut down the possibility of hydrogen based explosions. Sir John says that the UK supports this move and urged that people should not be alarmed by resultant steam that will sometimes emit from the plant. This is a natural side effect of the hydrogen injections. In summary, the practical actions taken by the Japanese – connecting power and using fresh water – coupled with the natural processes of iodine 131 decaying, mean that the situation at Fukushima is improving in general. Sir John assured that the threat of radiation to the Tokyo region has significantly reduced.

Q: Can you say something about the continuing concerns about food and water from the area?
Sir John and his colleagues from the UK’s Health Protection Industry and the Department of Health, reiterated that significant amounts of radiation have been released into the water, and that seafood from the Fukushima area should not be eaten; the risk to Tokyo has disappeared. People are urged to take their lead from the guidance of the Japanese government.

Land contamination
The briefing went on to cover the issue of land contamination – there are high concentrations of radioactivity on agricultural land. It might be possible for people to live in certain areas, but the soil there might be contaminated for months or years to come. Sir John and colleagues continued: the Japanese will put legislation in place to make sure that food from these areas does not get into the food chain. We were reminded that it is “still early days” but that Japanese regulations are more stringent than those of other countries.

Q: There is concern over milk, eggs, dairy products, etc. Is there anything you can say about that?
Sir John reinforced the fact that the Japanese will continue to test food, and that their regulations are stringent; this means that any detection of radiation will quickly become apparent. The primary concern was radioactive iodine; cesium getting onto the soil is also an issue. But the latter is easy to detect and regulate, it was assured. Milk may be banned in a wider area, even in areas that people can live quite safely, but this is yet to be announced.

Q: Can you explain more about the Nitrogen injections by TEPCO?
Sir John explained that these will go on for a few more days. He continued: reactors are surrounded by containment vessels. At present, the potential for explosions is being kept as low as possible, so there is a drop in the chances of explosive activity. The Japanese are moderating the situation.

Q: Parents and children have returned to school in Toyko – should they receive iodine tablets?
Iodine should only be taken when a radioactive plume comes overhead, Sir John said, so the need to take it is probably over. Common sense tells us that there is no need for iodine at present. Sir John expressed that you shouldn’t take these tablets unless it is suggested by Japanese authorities. The UK is not recommending that people take them. David Fitton from the British Embassy in Tokyo said that the Embassy is still providing the tablets to those who would like them, but that this operation is being kept under review.

Q: Why is “new” iodine 131 not being produced in the reactors?
It just isn’t, Sir John said. Iodine is only produced when a reactor is producing electricity. When reactors are switched off, all iodine will start decaying and the amounts will naturally go down. There is no iodine in the storage ponds at all, he assured.

Q: For people who are volunteering in the quake affected area, is the 80km exclusion zone still in force?
Sir John said that the UK will be reviewing this at the next SAGE meeting. At present they are monitoring the worst case scenarios, including the impact of bad weather conditions, and calculating what the likely dosages would be. Sir John and his team will then provide advice into COBRA; it is a “work in progress”.

Q: The amounts of radiation dumped into the ocean seemed large, are there implications for seafood on a larger scale?
They do seem like large volumes but in relation to the size of the Pacific Ocean they are miniscule, said Sir John. From a practical perspective, larger scale impact is enormously unlikely because the Pacific Ocean is so large. Sir John assured that the Japanese are monitoring levels in fish and food and have banned produced from the region.

Q: Any comments on the ongoing seismic activity in Eastern Japan?
Sir John acknowledged that aftershocks are natural after such a major earthquake, but that their intensity will decay over time. Sir John stated that he is a biologist and not a geologist. The conclusion of today’s briefing was that “things are getting better” and that the Japanese are now making progress on what is a difficult problem.

Stay calm! Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

What Really Happened at Fukushima

This is the best account I have seen of the events at Fukushima. Sorry guys and gals, Tokyo and the rest of the world are not about to be affected. This is a "local" nuclear disaster...... This is an E-mail from the Dean of the University of Washington College of Engineering to the students - March 17

*What happened at Fukushima*
I will try to summarize the main facts. The earthquake that hit Japan was 5 times more powerful than the worst earthquake the nuclear power plant was built for (the Richter scale works logarithmically; the difference betweenthe 8.2 that the plants were built for and the 8.9 that happened is 5 times,not 0.7). So the first hooray for Japanese engineering, everything held up.

When the earthquake hit with 8.9, the nuclear reactors all went intoautomatic shutdown. Within seconds after the earthquake started, the controlrods had been inserted into the core and nuclear chain reaction of theuranium stopped. Now, the cooling system has to carry away the residual heat. The residual heat load is about 3% of the heat load under normaloperating conditions.

The earthquake destroyed the external power supply of the nuclear reactor. That is one of the most serious accidents for a nuclear power plant, and accordingly, a “plant black out” receives a lot of attention when designingbackup systems. The power is needed to keep the coolant pumps working. Sincethe power plant had been shut down, it cannot produce any electricity byitself any more. Things were going well for an hour. One set of multiple sets of emergency. Diesel power generators kicked in and provided the electricity that was needed.

Then the Tsunami came, much bigger than people had expected when building the power plant. The tsunami took out all multiple sets of backupDiesel generators. When designing a nuclear power plant, engineers follow a philosophy called“Defense of Depth”. That means that you first build everything to withstand the worst catastrophe you can imagine, and then design the plant in such away that it can still handle one system failure (that you thought could never happen) after the other. A tsunami taking out all backup power in oneswift strike is such a scenario. The last line of defense is putting everything into the third containment, that will keep everything, whateverthe mess, control rods in our out, core molten or not, inside the reactor.When the diesel generators were gone, the reactor operators switched to emergency battery power.

The batteries were designed as one of the backups to the backups, to provide power for cooling the core for 8 hours. And they did. Within the 8 hours, another power source had to be found and connected tothe power plant. The power grid was down due to the earthquake. The diesel generators were destroyed by the tsunami. So mobile diesel generators were trucked in. This is where things started to go seriously wrong. The external power generators could not be connected to the power plant (the plugs did not fit). So after the batteries ran out, the residual heat could not be carried away any more.

At this point the plant operators begin to follow emergency procedures thatare in place for a “loss of cooling event”. It is again a step along the “Depth of Defense” lines. The power to the cooling systems should never have failed completely, but it did, so they “retreat” to the next line of defense. All of this, however shocking it seems to us, is part of the day-to-day training you go through as an operator, right through to managing a core meltdown. It was at this stage that people started to talk about core meltdown. Because at the end of the day, if cooling cannot be restored, the core willeventually melt (after hours or days), and the last line of defense, thecore catcher and third containment, would come into play.

But the goal at this stage was to manage the core while it was heating up, and ensure that the first containment (the Zircaloy tubes that contains thenuclear fuel), as well as the second containment remain intact andoperational for as long as possible, to give the engineers time to fix the cooling systems. Because cooling the core is such a big deal, the reactor has a number of cooling systems, each in multiple versions (the reactor water cleanups ystem, the decay heat removal, the reactor core isolating cooling, thestandby liquid cooling system, and the emergency core cooling system). Which one failed when or did not fail is not clear at this point in time.

So imagine a pressure cooker on the stove, heat on low, but on. Theoperators use whatever cooling system capacity they have to get rid of as much heat as possible, but the pressure starts building up. The priority now is to maintain integrity of the first containment (keep temperature of the fuel rods below 2200°C), as well as the second containment, the pressure cooker. In order to maintain integrity of the pressure cooker (the second containment), the pressure has to be released from time to time. Because theability to do that in an emergency is so important, the reactor has 11 pressure release valves. The operators now started venting steam from time to time to control the pressure.

The temperature at this stage was about550°C. This is when the reports about “radiation leakage” starting coming in. I believe I explained above why venting the steam is theoretically the same as releasing radiation into the environment, but why it was and is not dangerous. The radioactive nitrogen as well as the noble gases do not pose a threat to human health. At some stage during this venting, the explosion occurred. The explosiontook place outside of the third containment (our “last line of defense”), and the reactor building. Remember that the reactor building has no function in keeping the radioactivity contained.

It is not entirely clear yet what has happened, but this is the likely scenario: The operators decided to vent the steam from the pressure vessel not directly into the environment, butinto the space between the third containment and the reactor building (to give the radioactivity in the steam more time to subside). The problem isthat at the high temperatures that the core had reached at this stage, watermolecules can “disassociate” into oxygen and hydrogen – an explosive mixture. And it did explode, outside the third containment, damaging thereactor building around. It was that sort of explosion, but inside thepressure vessel (because it was badly designed and not managed properly bythe operators) that lead to the explosion of Chernobyl. This was never a risk at Fukushima. The problem of hydrogen-oxygen formation is one of the biggies when you design a power plant (if you are not Soviet, that is), so the reactor is built and operated in a way it cannot happen inside the containment. It happened outside, which was not intended but a possible scenario and OK, because it did not pose a risk for the containment.

So the pressure was under control, as steam was vented. Now, if you keep boiling your pot, the problem is that the water level will keep falling and falling. The core is covered by several meters of water in order to allow for some time to pass (hours, days) before it gets exposed. Once the rodss tart to be exposed at the top, the exposed parts will reach the critical temperature of 2200 °C after about 45 minutes. This is when the first containment, the Zircaloy tube, would fail. And this started to happen. The cooling could not be restored before there was some (very limited, but still) damage to the casing of some of the fuel. The nuclear material itself was still intact, but the surrounding Zircaloyshell had started melting. What happened now is that some of the by products of the uranium decay – radioactive Cesium and Iodine – started to mix with the steam. The big problem, uranium, was still under control, because theuranium oxide rods were good until 3000 °C. It is confirmed that a very small amount of Cesium and Iodine was measured in the steam that wasreleased into the atmosphere.It seems this was the “go signal” for a major plan B.

The small amounts of Cesium that were measured told the operators that the first containment on one of the rods somewhere was about to give. The Plan A had been to restoreone of the regular cooling systems to the core. Why that failed is unclear. One plausible explanation is that the tsunami also took away / polluted all the clean water needed for the regular cooling systems. The water used in the cooling system is very clean, demineralized (like distilled) water. The reason to use pure water is the above mentionedactivation by the neutrons from the Uranium: Pure water does not get activated much, so stays practically radioactive-free. Dirt or salt in the water will absorb the neutrons quicker, becoming more radioactive. This has no effect whatsoever on the core – it does not care what it is cooled by. But it makes life more difficult for the operators and mechanics when theyhave to deal with activated (i..e. slightly radioactive) water.

But Plan A had failed – cooling systems down or additional clean waterunavailable – so Plan B came into effect. This is what it looks like happened: In order to prevent a core meltdown, the operators started to use sea water to cool the core. I am not quite sure if they flooded our pressure cookerwith it (the second containment), or if they flooded the third containment, immersing the pressure cooker. But that is not relevant for us. The point is that the nuclear fuel has now been cooled down. Because the chain reaction has been stopped a long time ago, there is only very little residual heat being produced now. The large amount of cooling water that has been used is sufficient to take up that heat. Because it is a lot of water,the core does not produce sufficient heat any more to produce anysignificant pressure. Also, boric acid has been added to the seawater. Boric acid is “liquid control rod”. Whatever decay is still going on, the Boronwill capture the neutrons and further speed up the cooling down of the core.The plant came close to a core meltdown. Here is the worst-case scenario that was avoided: If the seawater could not have been used for treatment, the operators would have continued to vent the water steam to avoid pressure buildup. The third containment would then have been completely sealed to allow the core meltdown to happen without releasing radioactive material. After the meltdown, there would have been a waiting period for the intermediate radioactive materials to decay inside the reactor, and all radioactive particles to settle on a surface inside the containment. The cooling system would have been restored eventually, and the molten corecooled to a manageable temperature. The containment would have been cleaned up on the inside. Then a messy job of removing the molten core from the containment would have begun, packing the (now solid again) fuel bit by bit into transportation containers to be shipped to processing plants. Depending on the damage, the block of the plant would then either be repaired or dismantled. Now, where does that leave us? My assessment:

§ The plant is safe now and will stay safe.. § Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else.

§ Some radiation was released when the pressure vessel was vented. All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed). A very small amount of Cesium was released, as well as Iodine. If you were sitting on top of the plants’ chimney when they were venting, you should probablygive up smoking to return to your former life expectancy. The Cesium and Iodine isotopes were carried out to the sea and will never be seen again.

§ There was some limited damage to the first containment. That means that some amounts of radioactive Cesium and Iodine will also be released into the cooling water, but no Uranium or other nasty stuff (the Uranium oxide doesnot “dissolve” in the water). There are facilities for treating the cooling water inside the third containment. The radioactive Cesium and Iodine willbe removed there and eventually stored as radioactive waste in terminal storage.

§ The seawater used as cooling water will be activated to some degree. Because the control rods are fully inserted, the Uranium chain reaction is not happening. That means the “main” nuclear reaction is not happening, thus not contributing to the activation. The intermediate radioactive materials(Cesium and Iodine) are also almost gone at this stage, because the Uranium decay was stopped a long time ago. This further reduces the activation. The bottom line is that there will be some low level of activation of the seawater, which will also be removed by the treatment facilities.

§ The seawater will then be replaced over time with the “normal” coolingwater

§ The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processingfacility, just like during a regular fuel change.

§ Fuel rods and the entire plant will be checked for potential damage. This will take about 4-5 years.

§ The safety systems on all Japanese plants will be upgraded to withstand a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami (or worse)

§ (Updated) I believe the most significant problem will be a prolonged power shortage. 11 of Japan’s 55 nuclear reactors in different plants wereshut down and will have to be inspected, directly reducing the nation’snuclear power generating capacity by 20%, with nuclear power accounting forabout 30% of the national total power generation capacity.. I have not looked into possible consequences for other nuclear plants not directly affected. This will probably be covered by running gas power plants that are usually only used for peak loads to cover some of the base load as well. I am not familiar with Japan’s energy supply chain for oil, gas and coal, and what damage the harbors, refinery, storage and transportation networks have suffered, as well as damage to the national distribution grid. All of thatwill increase your electricity bill, as well as lead to power shortages during peak demand and reconstruction efforts, in Japan.

§ This all is only part of a much bigger picture. Emergency response has to deal with shelter, drinking water, food and medical care, transportation and communication infrastructure, as well as electricity supply. In a world of lean supply chains, we are looking at some major challenges in all of these areas.

" Thank you.

Additonal Update on Japan's Nuclear Situation- Friday 25th May

This excerpt was taken from a "Japan-US Discussion Forum" and is care of Mr. Peter Ennis. This should further put you at ease;

"The formulation by the writers/editors can easily convey the wrong impression. The plutonium oxide used in MOX is not pure plutonium, with nothing close to the toxicity of weapons-grade plutonium, and only marginally more dangerous than uranium oxide, the other key fuel component of MOX.And what about those "fires" and "explosions" that that could spread plutonium through the air? Extremely low probability under any circumstances, but even lower still with cooling procedures working, as they are at especially the storage pond for Unit 3, where pumps are now functioning. Under the worst of circumstances, experts estimate that the radiation exposure of people in the vicinity of the plant would increase by the equivalent of one CT scan, and would decline rapidly the further people are from the plant.BTW: Authorities have lifted the warning concerning tap water in Tokyo. And those three workers injured with radiation burns? They were hospitalized for precaution. They were exposed to 170 millisieverts of radiation, which is far below the 250 allowed for workers in an emergency in Japan (the same rule applies in the US), and below the 500 that the WHO says is the danger level for humans. That's not to take away from their heroic actions. But it should be clear that cold-blooded authorities are not dispatching these guys on near-certain death missions. Their exposure is being very closely monitored, and not one worker has experienced any symptoms of radiation sickness. Some day, an enterprising graduate student will research a paper on the accuracy of US media coverage of the troubles at the Fukushima plant, and I suspect the results will be quite a black market on the profession."

Let's pray the affected in Tohoku get some warmer weather and good hot food over this coming weekend.

Update on Japan's Nuclear Situation- Friday 25th March

It is great that there have been few surprises or significant changes in the nuclear reactors at Fukushima this week. There are some concerns with water and the food chain, but this following update from the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir John Beddington, should put you a little more at ease.

"Reactors: Current Situation
Sir John explained that the situation is still extremely serious, but that the Japanese authorities are making quite good progress at keeping things regulated, especially with regards to reactors 5 & 6. He went on to say that the "worst case scenario" imagined by the UK last week, is now very unlikely indeed. Although there is still a cause for concern, Sir John related that there are real indications of some progress. An example of this is that the Japanese have started to substitute seawater with fresh water in the cooling process, which will help the situation, because sea water evaporates more quickly than fresh water. Sir John said that this development is "very good news". Another example of progress is the restoration of power to the reactors.
While steam releases may be worrying to look at, Sir John said that the Japanese authorities are closely monitoring radiation levels and there is no indication of harmful radiation entering the atmosphere, "they are making steady progress". We can't forget about the dangers and are not "out of the woods yet" but there is a definite improvement to the situation. Advisors in the UK and nuclear experts also think that what the Japanese are doing is appropriate.
Water and food: Current Situation
Water: The advice being given by the Japanese authorities is sensible and people should follow this advice, Sir John said. He explained that the Japanese are very cautious in comparison to the UK and Europe in general and that any warning levels are based on cautious assumption, and dosage accumulated over a period of time. It is completely safe to wash in the water, he said. There is no need to buy bottled water to bathe children, for example. Also, there is “no point whatsoever” in taking iodine tablets at the moment, as there is no threat and the effects of the tablets only last for 24 hours. If a radioactive plume was due to come over Tokyo, Sir John assured attendees that the British Embassy would give advice about when to take the tablets. Giving the tablets was an "entirely precautionary" measure by the Embassy. The levels of radioactivity that were found in water were below anything we would issue a warning about in the UK, he said. In addition, the warning is based on two whole months of consumption. Sir John reconfirmed that the Japanese authorities "get onto these things within a matter of hours or days" and there is a big level of precaution involved. In conclusion, it is unlikely that something would go amiss for 2 months when the authorities are being so vigilant.
Food: Sir John stated that the basic advice is that people should “absolutely avoid” all food from the affected area. In particular, shellfish and seaweed should be avoided as they accumulate higher levels of radioactivity than other seafood. He said that fish from the area should be avoided too, although fish do not accumulate as much radioactivity. The situation and advice regarding food will be changing as time goes on but Sir John advised; "if in doubt, do not eat it". He mentioned that longer term contamination in the area will be a problem, but that levels of radiation in food are easy to monitor and that this would help the Japanese regulate the situation.
Q: What would be the trigger for current travel advice to be lowered for Brits?
Attendees were urged to understand that Embassy travel advice is not predicated on radiation alone "Japan is a disturbed place just now". There is no reason from radioactivity point of view why you couldn't live happily in Tokyo, Sir John said.
Q: What is the area of contamination?
The Japanese authorities are taking highly precautionary measures; quite how far the area will spread out cannot be monitored from the UK, said Sir John. Experts in the UK recommend that you follow the Japanese advice. The contaminated area may in fact be wider than the current evacuation area and will probably cover a significant area around the plant, but dependent on wind direction and rainfall. He went on to say that plants will be affected, as will rain and seawater, but is confident that the Japanese authorities will monitor this.
Q: There has been natural cooling in the reactors - how does this affect your outlook?
Every day that passes sees a drop in radioactive levels trough natural processes, Sir John said, so "it will get easier over time", but he stressed "I don't think we can relax yet". It will take a matter of weeks before we can relax; the food situation will take longer than a week; the clean up will take several years. As an aside, it was mentioned that clean up depends on the fertility of the soil in the area.
Q: What are the dangers to those living closer to the plant?
Sir John said that in the event of a meltdown of reactors, people should stay indoors, take iodine tablets, as directed by the authorities, and follow advice given by the authorities.
Q: Can you comment on Cesium in the water?
Authorities will be measuring this but there is no evidence of anything that poses a problem now, said Sir John, however, vegetation could suffer for months.

In conclusion, Sir John urged attendees to use the monitoring being done by Japanese authorities as a guide. He is confident that if there is an alarm, the Japanese will keep people informed. He stressed that he doesn't think the UK’s worse case scenarios are plausible now, but that calculations are continuing to be done every 3 to 4 hours. Finally, Sir John emphasised that he is happy to keep up a dialogue with British nationals in Japan and will make himself available for another briefing next week if desired. For now, the UK will monitor changes, hold regular meetings and keep the Embassy informed."

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Relocation Update on Tokyo- Wednesday 23rd March

It has been a pretty emotional couple of months. First my home town of Christchurch was smashed in a huge earthquake, and then within a month my second home of Japan has been devastated with the earthquake and tidal waves. My thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected. Luckily, my family, all the people I work with and their families have come through this with no problems. I am truly blessed.

This brought a tear to my eye last night. If you don't get a little bit worked up by this beautiful message from Satomi-san, you are a better person than I am....



You will notice I left the nuclear reactor out of the introduction of today's message and there is a reason. In the big picture, in my mind, the nuclear reactors are 10% of this disaster. A large part perhaps, but the other 90% has caused the deaths of probably near 20,000 people, and 350,000 people have been evacuated; most of whom don't have a home to go back to. The deaths related to the nuclear reactors at this time are in single figures, and while some have been evacuated from the 30km radius of the plant, outside of this area there really is little concern for one's health.

Here is an entry from a "Japan-US Discussion Forum" thanks to Peter Ennis. I quote "Here is the situation: The reactor at Fukushima Daiichi Unit #3 uses a fuel mixture of uranium oxide and plutonium oxide. Some analysts have argued that since plutonium is such a toxic substance, this means that any radioactive particles that escape into the atmosphere from the plant will be especially dangerous. But Professor John Lee, a professor of nuclear engineering and radiological sciences at the University of Michigan, and author of the forthcoming "Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems,"says it is not that simple. Even in the unlikely event the containment mechanisms at Unit #3, especially the reactor pressure vessel that contains the reactor core (the fuel rods), were to breach, the plutonium product released into the air would not be severely toxic like pure plutonium. The fuel is actually plutonium oxide, which would not be much different from uranium oxide. Bottom Line: No significantly greater risk. And how big a danger is a worst-case scenario? Dr. Lee says that for people outside the boundary of the Fukushima plant, the increased exposure to radiation would be equivalent to, at most, a CT scan (which is about 100 chest x-rays). In other words, no threat to human health."

I have just arrived in Tokyo this morning and if you didn't know about the earthquake up north, you would not know the difference. The Shinkansen was on time. The Yamanote Line was as packed as it has ever been. And, I just called into the convenience store, and while there were a few items missing here and there, 80% of those convenient items we are used to are back on the shelf.

If you left last week in fear of your safety, my advice would be to wait this week out (once this week passes without further event, word is that the risk of anything happening at the nuclear reactors signifcantly drops) and make travel plans to be back next week. We are all waiting, and the people up north need everyone's financial and moral support.

Finally, if you have space and can offer a family a room, please do check this site out (Japanese only) and get yourself registered to help; http://roomdonor.jp/top.html

DON'T GIVE UP TOHOKU....

Update on Japan's Nuclear Position- Friday 18th March

This is the lastest update from the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir John Beddington.

Over the past few days, there has been continuing concern about the situation at Fukushima, particularly in light of yesterday's amendment to British travel advice to "consider leaving" Tokyo, which has also been the advice of many other countries.

"Sir John Beddington explained: At the beginning of this week, our concerns were mainly about possible meltdowns in the reactors. What the Japanese were doing was entirely proportionate to the situation and, even in our worst case scenarios, such as extreme weather conditions, there was nothing remotely to worry about. There were two main reasons why we changed the British travel advice.

1. Fuel Ponds
If the fuel ponds that hold spent fuel rods were allowed to dry out, especially the pond in reactor number 4, the emissions would be highly radioactive. We worried that radiation would start coming out as a result of fire or minor explosions and this would cause more radiation than that coming from the reactors themselves. This is one of the reasons it was more important to be more precautionary around the Fukushima plant, and that was why the recommendation was adopted to extend the evacuation zone to 80km. We discussed this with our scientific colleagues in America and they agreed. There is STILL no massive danger but we wanted to be precautionary.

2. Worst Case Scenario
The British Prime Minister asked us to look at the plausible "worst case scenario" combined with unfavourable weather conditions, particularly with regards to Tokyo. I repeat that this is HIGHLY UNLIKELY. Even if our plausible worst case scenario happened, the danger to Tokyo would be modest. Although radiation would increase for a short time - no longer than 48 hours - the effects on human health would be mitigated by staying indoors not opening windows. For people living in Tokyo, immediate concerns can be allayed. If the UK were to find any traces of radiation, they would inform Tokyo of when the plume is due in order for people to take precautions. This is NOT the current situation; this is only assuming the worst case scenario. Both of our worst case scenarios (explosions in reactors and extreme weather conditions) are unlikely.

To sum up, regarding the precautionary zone around the plant it was sensible to be precautionary, but even in worst case scenario, we are not worried about the human health risks. The US and France have heard these conclusions and they share our opinion.

Q: Is there any chance of contamination in Tokyo?
Sir John: Implications to people in Tokyo - none.

Question from the BritishSchool: Given that the reactor was contained but then suddently there was an explosion, how long do you foresee a dangerous situation continuing for?
Sir John: The key issue is whether or not the Japanese can get sufficient water into the holding pond on reactor 4 and continue to get water into other holding ponds. In the case of reactors, adequate water is needed to keep them cool. That is critical. In terms of when we can all relax - this is dependent on how successful the Japanese are at cooling the reactors and ponds. When that begins to happen we can relax. In a week or so we will know if we really have to worry or not. In addition, afterwards, there are enourmous problems of clean up and that could take years.

Question from David Warren: Can you clarify about the contamination of food and water?
Sir John: We have been working with our colleagues in DEFRA and the food standards agency in the UK. The message is to avoid food grown around the region of the plant of course. Normal sewage filtration processes take out radioactivity. If this was dangerous to anyone outside of Fukushima, the Japanese authorities would react and advise. In Chernobly the risks were significant - more dramatic and worrying, but even the risks were negliible for water because of filtration. Bottled water is always safe. Any problems related to tap water will not be connected with radiation but rather the sewage coming from broken pipes. In conclusion, microbiology is more of a concern than radiation. As for food in shops - in cartons, tins, bottles or boxes, there is no problem whatsoever. It would be unwise to eat food produced from gardens in the region. Anything left in the open air in Fukushima, dont eat.

Q: You now advise to "consider leaving" - at what stage would you change that to "leave"?
Sir John: Only in the worst case scenarios. The reason we said "consider leaving" - there are major disruptions to transportation and supply chain in the whole of Japan. We are NOT advising that people leave due to the risk of radiation. Even IF a plume were to reach Tokyo, it would not pose major health risks.

Q: What does plausible worst case mean? Is there an implausible worst case?
Sir John: Implausible - all reactors and all ponds go up at the same time and extreme weather conditions bring the plume to Tokyo; it's not sensible to consider this.

Q: How do we know if the Japanese government is telling the whole story?
Sir John: There would be a series of explosions at the reactors - the Japanese government cannot hide that if it were to be the case.

Q: Why is the French giving different advice?
Sir John: Their advice is not based on science.

Q: Any reason for people in Tokyo to take potassium iodide? Children, pregnant mothers?
Sir John: The Health Protection Agency is on the line. If we are looking at the "worst case scenario" it would be sensible for pregnant women, children and nursing mothers to take stabilising drugs as their thyroids are more sensitive radioactive iodine. However there is no need for anyone in Tokyo to take these drugs now. If necessary, there would be plenty of warning for people in Tokyo to take the tablets.

Finally, we are continuing to monitor this situation every day, with nuclear and health experts."

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Update on Japan's Nuclear Position- Wednesday 16th March

This is a statement issued through the British Chamber of Commerce (BCCJ) from the British Government's Chief Scientific Officer Professor John Beddington with regard to the developments following the explosion at Fukushima nuclear plant. It is long, but very much worth reading

"What I’m going to do is go into a bit of a stream of consciousness about how we see the situation and then I’ll talk about what would be a reasonable worst case, what we think is the most likely case, but also, you know,[unclear] all the time. The basic situation is, you know, is the Japanese are trying to keep the reactors cool by pumping sea water that will keep the temperature down; that’s their first line of defence. And up to now that’s been working… reasonably well. Basically the reactor lies within a large containment vessel. But if it isn’t cooled particularly well, then the pressure in the containment vessel goes up and it reaches a level where it can’t cope. At that stage the Japanese authorities deliberately release a mixture of steam and hydrogen gas and so on into the atmosphere. This is really quite modest amounts of radioactive material and it’s not likely, by and large, one shouldn’t be concerned about it.
It appears however that from this morning’s results that one of the containment vessels may be somewhat cracked. That’s new information that came through I think like 5 in the morning Japan time. The situation is still much the same. What they’re going to continue to try to do is keep the temperature low, keep the pressure within the containment vessels within those tolerance limits. That will involve very limited amounts of radioactive material going out. Now that’s what is I think is happening at the moment. Now the first thing to say about that is do we have any concerns now in terms of human health. Well the answer is yes we do, but only in the immediate vicinity of the reactors. So the 20 kilometre exclusion zone the Japanese have actually imposed is sensible and proportionate. If they extended out a little bit more to 30 kms, that is well within the sort of parameters that we would think are extremely safe.
Let me now talk about what would be a reasonable worst case scenario. If the Japanese fail to keep the reactors cool and fail to keep the pressure in the containment vessels at an appropriate level, you can get this, you know, the dramatic word “meltdown”. But what does that actually mean? What a meltdown involves is the basic reactor core melts, and as it melts, nuclear material will fall through to the floor of the container. There it will react with concrete and other materials … that is likely… remember this is the reasonable worst case, we don’t think anything worse is going to happen. In this reasonable worst case you get an explosion. You get some radioactive material going up to about 500 metres up into the air. Now, that’s really serious, but it’s serious again for the local area. It’s not serious for elsewhere even if you get a combination of that explosion it would only have nuclear material going in to the air up to about 500 metres. If you then couple that with the worst possible weather situation i.e. prevailing weather taking radioactive material in the direction of Greater Tokyo and you had maybe rainfall which would bring the radioactive material down do we have a problem? The answer is unequivocally no. Absolutely no issue. The problems are within 30 km of the reactor. And to give you a flavour for that, when Chernobyl had a massive fire at the graphite core, material was going up not just 500 metres but to 30,000 feet. It was lasting not for the odd hour or so but lasted months, and that was putting nuclear radioactive material up into the upper atmosphere for a very long period of time. But even in the case of Chernobyl, the exclusion zone that they had was about 30 kilometres. And in that exclusion zone, outside that, there is no evidence whatsoever to indicate people had problems from the radiation. The problems with Chernobyl were people were continuing to drink the water, continuing to eat vegetables and so on and that was where the problems came from. That’s not going to be the case here. So what I would really re-emphasise is that this is very problematic for the area and the immediate vicinity and one has to have concerns for the people working there. Beyond that 20 or 30 kilometres, it’s really not an issue for health."

View the full transcript here;
http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=News&id=566799182

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Further Update on Japan's Nuclear Position

Following on from my message yesterday evening, please see US Ambassador Roos statement below, that is in line with the BCCJ report in my previous posting;

"March 15, 2011 02:30

Today our hearts remain with our Japanese friends who, after suffering this devastating tragedy just four days ago, have to undertake recovery and reconstruction and address the ongoing nuclear emergency.

We understand that many of you are anxious and have questions in the shadow of the Fukushima emergency, since we are in the midst of a complex, constantly changing, and unpredictable situation. In this fluid situation, our commitment to our citizens is to accumulate accurate information and assess it sufficiently in order to make important judgments.

Since the first reports of trouble with the reactors, American nuclear experts have worked around the clock to analyze data, monitor developments, and provide clear assessments on the potential dangers. While at times we have had only limited access to information, I am personally committed to assuring that our experts have as much access and information as possible, and the necessary resources to understand the situation. I have personally been deeply engaged in these efforts.

After a careful analysis of data, radiation levels, and damage assessments of all units at Fukushima, our experts are in agreement with the response and measures taken by Japanese technicians, including their recommended 20kms radius for evacuation and additional shelter-in-place recommendations out to 30kms.

Let me also address reports of very low levels of radiation outside the evacuation area detected by U.S. and Japanese sensitive instrumentation. This bears very careful monitoring, which we are doing. If we assess that the radiation poses a threat to public health, we will share that information and provide relevant guidance immediately.

The United States will continue to work around the clock to provide precise and up-to-date information supported by expert analysis to ensure the safety and security of our citizens and to help Japan in its time of great need. U.S. citizens in need of emergency assistance should send an e-mail to JapanEmergencyUSC@state.gov with detailed information about their location and contact information, and monitor the U.S. Department of State website at travel.state.gov."

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Update on the Japan's Nuclear Postion

Over the past 24-48 hours in the Expatriate Community in Japan we have witnessed an exodus of our clients to overseas locations in light of the situation with the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants. We are also now witnessing an exodus of people (both foreign and Japanese) out of the Tokyo region towards Nagoya, Osaka, Kobe and other Kansai areas. All of this is to be expected, and is perhaps sensible behaviour on the part of the companies and people involved, to move quickly in a very uncertain situation.

However, I have just received the following report through the British Chamber of Commerce and the British Embassy that dispells any need to panic or any threats of catastrophic disaster. Please take a look at the following and feel at ease that things are slowly being brought under control;

"Update on Japan’s Nuclear Power station situation

March 15th 2011, 17.00

Telephone briefing from Sir John Beddington, the UK’s Chief Scientific adviser and Hilary Walker Deputy Director Emergency Preparedness at the Department of Health.

“Unequivocally, Tokyo will not be affected by the radiation fallout of explosions that have occurred or may occur at the Fukushima nuclear power stations.”

The danger area is limited to within the 30 kilometer evacuation zone and no one will be allowed to enter this area other than those directly involved in the emergency procedures currently being undertaken at both Fukushima 1 & 2.

Sir John went on to answer a series of questions including a comparison between Chernobyl and Japan. He said, “they are entirely different. Chernobyl exploded and there was a subsequent fire with radioactive materials being launched 30,000 ft into the air”. The maximum height of any Fukushima explosions would be no more than 500 metres.

“The amount of radiation that has been released is miniscule and would have to be in the order of 1,000 or more for it to be a threat to humans” This was confirmed by Hilary Walker.

Sir John went on to say that the Japanese authorities are doing their best to keep the reactors cooled and that this is a continuing operation. All workers on site dealing with the emergency are being fully decontaminated at the end of each shift.

When asked how reliable the information coming from the Japanese authorities was as to radiation levels he said, “this cannot be fabricated and the Japanese authorities are posting all the readings on the recognized international information sites which they are obliged to do. Independent verification shows that the data provided are accurate”.

In answer to a specific question from the Head of the BritishSchool in Tokyo, Sir John Beddington and Hilary Walker said that there was no reason at all for the school to be closed unless there were other issues such as power outages and transport problems.

David Fitton, First Minister at the British Embassy in Tokyo moderated the teleconference and confirmed that a transcript of the briefing will be available on the Embassy website later today."

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

New Resident Card for Japan Relocations in 2012

Early in January this year, I visited the Counsellor of the Immigration Bureau within the Justice Ministry to deliever the EBC White Paper and explain our concerns with the upcoming change from the current Alien Registration Card to the new "Resident Card".

For information the EBC White Paper, you can view our recommendations here; http://www.ebc-jp.com/index.php/committees/list-of-committees/759

Or for the whole white paper, please download here; http://www.ebc-jp.com/downloads/2010-WP-E.pdf

I was very encouraged by both the attitude of the Counsellor Koide in terms of listening to our concerns and the way in which the Immigration Bureau is genuinely looking for the best system for not only their ease of management, but also for the convenience of all foreigners in Japan. Here are some points that came from the meeting;

- Most visa categories will have their validity length extended from 3 years to 5 years. Re-entry permits will be extended in line with this too (more on re-entry permits below). Good benefit for most foreigners here.

- The date of implementation of the new system will be announced in autmun of this year (2011). As per the bill passed with regard to these changes, implementation must by made by July 2012.

- Residential address updates will be made at your local ward / city / town office. Updating your local office will result in automatic updating of your Immigration Records held with the Immigration Bureau.

- On implementation of this system, all foreign residents will be placed into "Jumin Toroku (Resident's Record)" like any other Japanese. This will result in all new foreigners to Japan having to submit a "Jumin Toroku Application" to their local ward / city / town office on arrival, in addition to anything required for the "Resident Card Application".

- The new system will see "Re-Entry Permits" exempt as long as you re-enter Japan within 12-months. The Immigration Bureau has confirmed that 99% of foreigners leaving Japan on the current Re-Entry Permit system return within 12-months. They forsee few issues with what happens after exceeding 12-months if you don't have a re-entry permit.

- The bill passed that will change the "Alien Registration Act" keeps the re-entry permit system. While we are not sure to the meaning behind this, it would appear that for long terms out of Japan and for some "special cases" (that no doubt concern those of Korean and Chinese descent) re-entry permits will still be required.

- The Counsellor confirmed that the Immigration Bureau will be reducing the information placed on the new "Resident Card" to about half the number of categories as the current version, and that only these displayed categories will be kept in the IC Card within the Resident Card. They have indicated that they completely understand the privacy issues related to the Resident Card, and will be making sure that a high level of security is maintained for the new card.

Things look very promising for a more convenient system to be introduced in 2012. However, for arriving foreigners there are still going to be the same initial visits to your local authorities to get yourself registered!

Vulnerability in Relocation

I have worked with many people on their relocations to Japan. A variety of personalities, situations, backgrounds; every relocation is different. What I hadn't thought much about was vulnerability; the fear of shame, not be accepted or not being able to connect.

The following is one of the most thought-provoking TED presentations I have seen.

As relocation consultants and supporters of people's lives in Japan, we all need to consider vulnerability more.

More Than Japan Housing, More Than Japan Cars and Furniture, More than Japan Serviced Apartments, More Than Japan Destination Services, More Than Japan License Conversion, More Than Japan Information!
The H&R Group is MORE THAN RELOCATION!
www.morethanrelo.com

Cognitive Surplus and Relocation

I have recently read Clay Shirky's book "Cognitive Surplus" that is good background to social media and "creativity and generosity in a connected age".

For anyone who can't quite get their head around social media and its place in our chaning society, I would highly recommend the read; Buy from Amazon

Shirky describes 4 necessary components for social media to exist;

1. Means- The growth of the Internet and the new ability to "publish" content publically at little or no cost.

2. Motive- In any field, for any hobby or interest, amateurs have always existed. ie. People that love their particular activity for the beauty of the activity, not money or any other phony motivation, but for the pure love of doing whatever they do. Like minds with the motive to do what they love can now connect with each other so much easier.

3. Opportunity- Digital networks make sharing cheap. In the old days, if you wrote a book and wanted others to read it, you got it printed through a publisher....... at a very high cost. Now you can offer your digital book to thousands of people for almost nothing. In past lives, people didn't share, but not because they didn't want to, but because the opportunity did not present itself. Social media has changed this, and amateurs now have the opportunity to share their works.

1, 2 and 3 above, are basically about "community", "cost" and "clarity". An increase in the size of communities, a decrease in the cost of sharing and clarity in the presentation of information make it possible to increasingly combine information and knowledge like never before. But there is a 4th ingredient needed to make social media work.

4. CULTURE- People's beahaviour toward one another isn't fully defined by the market or just the motive or opportunity, but also by the culture that exists within that community. A community needs a set of shared assumptions about how it should go about their activities; in order to be fully functional a group has to do more than just understand what its members care about or love. The book uses the example of groups within "PatientsLikeMe.com"; basically people with like illnesses who share their experiences, feelings, fear, etc. Hospitals, doctors and the like have not been able to cultivate such groups in the past, as the culture of their profession is to maintain the "privacy of information" and not share the records of their patients. The groups on "PatientsLikeMe.com" have a different culture; they are willing to share their medical records for the benefit of others.

It is in this way that Social Media not only requires culture as an ingredient to success, but Social Media is also changing the culture of many things that could not be changed in previous worlds. It is my desire to, likewise, change the culture in relocation for the better of the industry.