Friday, March 25, 2011

Additonal Update on Japan's Nuclear Situation- Friday 25th May

This excerpt was taken from a "Japan-US Discussion Forum" and is care of Mr. Peter Ennis. This should further put you at ease;

"The formulation by the writers/editors can easily convey the wrong impression. The plutonium oxide used in MOX is not pure plutonium, with nothing close to the toxicity of weapons-grade plutonium, and only marginally more dangerous than uranium oxide, the other key fuel component of MOX.And what about those "fires" and "explosions" that that could spread plutonium through the air? Extremely low probability under any circumstances, but even lower still with cooling procedures working, as they are at especially the storage pond for Unit 3, where pumps are now functioning. Under the worst of circumstances, experts estimate that the radiation exposure of people in the vicinity of the plant would increase by the equivalent of one CT scan, and would decline rapidly the further people are from the plant.BTW: Authorities have lifted the warning concerning tap water in Tokyo. And those three workers injured with radiation burns? They were hospitalized for precaution. They were exposed to 170 millisieverts of radiation, which is far below the 250 allowed for workers in an emergency in Japan (the same rule applies in the US), and below the 500 that the WHO says is the danger level for humans. That's not to take away from their heroic actions. But it should be clear that cold-blooded authorities are not dispatching these guys on near-certain death missions. Their exposure is being very closely monitored, and not one worker has experienced any symptoms of radiation sickness. Some day, an enterprising graduate student will research a paper on the accuracy of US media coverage of the troubles at the Fukushima plant, and I suspect the results will be quite a black market on the profession."

Let's pray the affected in Tohoku get some warmer weather and good hot food over this coming weekend.

Update on Japan's Nuclear Situation- Friday 25th March

It is great that there have been few surprises or significant changes in the nuclear reactors at Fukushima this week. There are some concerns with water and the food chain, but this following update from the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir John Beddington, should put you a little more at ease.

"Reactors: Current Situation
Sir John explained that the situation is still extremely serious, but that the Japanese authorities are making quite good progress at keeping things regulated, especially with regards to reactors 5 & 6. He went on to say that the "worst case scenario" imagined by the UK last week, is now very unlikely indeed. Although there is still a cause for concern, Sir John related that there are real indications of some progress. An example of this is that the Japanese have started to substitute seawater with fresh water in the cooling process, which will help the situation, because sea water evaporates more quickly than fresh water. Sir John said that this development is "very good news". Another example of progress is the restoration of power to the reactors.
While steam releases may be worrying to look at, Sir John said that the Japanese authorities are closely monitoring radiation levels and there is no indication of harmful radiation entering the atmosphere, "they are making steady progress". We can't forget about the dangers and are not "out of the woods yet" but there is a definite improvement to the situation. Advisors in the UK and nuclear experts also think that what the Japanese are doing is appropriate.
Water and food: Current Situation
Water:
The advice being given by the Japanese authorities is sensible and people should follow this advice, Sir John said. He explained that the Japanese are very cautious in comparison to the UK and Europe in general and that any warning levels are based on cautious assumption, and dosage accumulated over a period of time. It is completely safe to wash in the water, he said. There is no need to buy bottled water to bathe children, for example. Also, there is “no point whatsoever” in taking iodine tablets at the moment, as there is no threat and the effects of the tablets only last for 24 hours. If a radioactive plume was due to come over Tokyo, Sir John assured attendees that the British Embassy would give advice about when to take the tablets. Giving the tablets was an "entirely precautionary" measure by the Embassy. The levels of radioactivity that were found in water were below anything we would issue a warning about in the UK, he said. In addition, the warning is based on two whole months of consumption. Sir John reconfirmed that the Japanese authorities "get onto these things within a matter of hours or days" and there is a big level of precaution involved. In conclusion, it is unlikely that something would go amiss for 2 months when the authorities are being so vigilant.
Food: Sir John stated that the basic advice is that people should “absolutely avoid” all food from the affected area. In particular, shellfish and seaweed should be avoided as they accumulate higher levels of radioactivity than other seafood. He said that fish from the area should be avoided too, although fish do not accumulate as much radioactivity. The situation and advice regarding food will be changing as time goes on but Sir John advised; "if in doubt, do not eat it". He mentioned that longer term contamination in the area will be a problem, but that levels of radiation in food are easy to monitor and that this would help the Japanese regulate the situation.
Q: What would be the trigger for current travel advice to be lowered for Brits?
Attendees were urged to understand that Embassy travel advice is not predicated on radiation alone "Japan is a disturbed place just now". There is no reason from radioactivity point of view why you couldn't live happily in Tokyo, Sir John said.
Q: What is the area of contamination?
The Japanese authorities are taking highly precautionary measures; quite how far the area will spread out cannot be monitored from the UK, said Sir John. Experts in the UK recommend that you follow the Japanese advice. The contaminated area may in fact be wider than the current evacuation area and will probably cover a significant area around the plant, but dependent on wind direction and rainfall. He went on to say that plants will be affected, as will rain and seawater, but is confident that the Japanese authorities will monitor this.
Q: There has been natural cooling in the reactors - how does this affect your outlook?
Every day that passes sees a drop in radioactive levels trough natural processes, Sir John said, so "it will get easier over time", but he stressed "I don't think we can relax yet". It will take a matter of weeks before we can relax; the food situation will take longer than a week; the clean up will take several years. As an aside, it was mentioned that clean up depends on the fertility of the soil in the area.
Q: What are the dangers to those living closer to the plant?
Sir John said that in the event of a meltdown of reactors, people should stay indoors, take iodine tablets, as directed by the authorities, and follow advice given by the authorities.
Q: Can you comment on Cesium in the water?
Authorities will be measuring this but there is no evidence of anything that poses a problem now, said Sir John, however, vegetation could suffer for months.

In conclusion, Sir John urged attendees to use the monitoring being done by Japanese authorities as a guide. He is confident that if there is an alarm, the Japanese will keep people informed. He stressed that he doesn't think the UK’s worse case scenarios are plausible now, but that calculations are continuing to be done every 3 to 4 hours. Finally, Sir John emphasised that he is happy to keep up a dialogue with British nationals in Japan and will make himself available for another briefing next week if desired. For now, the UK will monitor changes, hold regular meetings and keep the Embassy informed."

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Relocation Update on Tokyo- Wednesday 23rd March

It has been a pretty emotional couple of months. First my home town of Christchurch was smashed in a huge earthquake, and then within a month my second home of Japan has been devastated with the earthquake and tidal waves. My thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected. Luckily, my family, all the people I work with and their families have come through this with no problems. I am truly blessed.

This brought a tear to my eye last night. If you don't get a little bit worked up by this beautiful message from Satomi-san, you are a better person than I am....



You will notice I left the nuclear reactor out of the introduction of today's message and there is a reason. In the big picture, in my mind, the nuclear reactors are 10% of this disaster. A large part perhaps, but the other 90% has caused the deaths of probably near 20,000 people, and 350,000 people have been evacuated; most of whom don't have a home to go back to. The deaths related to the nuclear reactors at this time are in single figures, and while some have been evacuated from the 30km radius of the plant, outside of this area there really is little concern for one's health.

Here is an entry from a "Japan-US Discussion Forum" thanks to Peter Ennis. I quote "Here is the situation: The reactor at Fukushima Daiichi Unit #3 uses a fuel mixture of uranium oxide and plutonium oxide. Some analysts have argued that since plutonium is such a toxic substance, this means that any radioactive particles that escape into the atmosphere from the plant will be especially dangerous. But Professor John Lee, a professor of nuclear engineering and radiological sciences at the University of Michigan, and author of the forthcoming "Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems,"says it is not that simple. Even in the unlikely event the containment mechanisms at Unit #3, especially the reactor pressure vessel that contains the reactor core (the fuel rods), were to breach, the plutonium product released into the air would not be severely toxic like pure plutonium. The fuel is actually plutonium oxide, which would not be much different from uranium oxide. Bottom Line: No significantly greater risk. And how big a danger is a worst-case scenario? Dr. Lee says that for people outside the boundary of the Fukushima plant, the increased exposure to radiation would be equivalent to, at most, a CT scan (which is about 100 chest x-rays). In other words, no threat to human health."

I have just arrived in Tokyo this morning and if you didn't know about the earthquake up north, you would not know the difference. The Shinkansen was on time. The Yamanote Line was as packed as it has ever been. And, I just called into the convenience store, and while there were a few items missing here and there, 80% of those convenient items we are used to are back on the shelf.

If you left last week in fear of your safety, my advice would be to wait this week out (once this week passes without further event, word is that the risk of anything happening at the nuclear reactors signifcantly drops) and make travel plans to be back next week. We are all waiting, and the people up north need everyone's financial and moral support.

Finally, if you have space and can offer a family a room, please do check this site out (Japanese only) and get yourself registered to help; http://roomdonor.jp/top.html

DON'T GIVE UP TOHOKU....

Friday, March 18, 2011

Update on Japan's Nuclear Position- Friday 18th March

This is the lastest update from the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir John Beddington.

Over the past few days, there has been continuing concern about the situation at Fukushima, particularly in light of yesterday's amendment to British travel advice to "consider leaving" Tokyo, which has also been the advice of many other countries.

"Sir John Beddington explained: At the beginning of this week, our concerns were mainly about possible meltdowns in the reactors. What the Japanese were doing was entirely proportionate to the situation and, even in our worst case scenarios, such as extreme weather conditions, there was nothing remotely to worry about. There were two main reasons why we changed the British travel advice.

1. Fuel Ponds
If the fuel ponds that hold spent fuel rods were allowed to dry out, especially the pond in reactor number 4, the emissions would be highly radioactive. We worried that radiation would start coming out as a result of fire or minor explosions and this would cause more radiation than that coming from the reactors themselves. This is one of the reasons it was more important to be more precautionary around the Fukushima plant, and that was why the recommendation was adopted to extend the evacuation zone to 80km. We discussed this with our scientific colleagues in America and they agreed. There is STILL no massive danger but we wanted to be precautionary.

2. Worst Case Scenario
The British Prime Minister asked us to look at the plausible "worst case scenario" combined with unfavourable weather conditions, particularly with regards to Tokyo. I repeat that this is HIGHLY UNLIKELY. Even if our plausible worst case scenario happened, the danger to Tokyo would be modest. Although radiation would increase for a short time - no longer than 48 hours - the effects on human health would be mitigated by staying indoors not opening windows. For people living in Tokyo, immediate concerns can be allayed. If the UK were to find any traces of radiation, they would inform Tokyo of when the plume is due in order for people to take precautions. This is NOT the current situation; this is only assuming the worst case scenario. Both of our worst case scenarios (explosions in reactors and extreme weather conditions) are unlikely.

To sum up, regarding the precautionary zone around the plant it was sensible to be precautionary, but even in worst case scenario, we are not worried about the human health risks. The US and France have heard these conclusions and they share our opinion.

Q: Is there any chance of contamination in Tokyo?
Sir John: Implications to people in Tokyo - none.

Question from the BritishSchool: Given that the reactor was contained but then suddently there was an explosion, how long do you foresee a dangerous situation continuing for?
Sir John: The key issue is whether or not the Japanese can get sufficient water into the holding pond on reactor 4 and continue to get water into other holding ponds. In the case of reactors, adequate water is needed to keep them cool. That is critical. In terms of when we can all relax - this is dependent on how successful the Japanese are at cooling the reactors and ponds. When that begins to happen we can relax. In a week or so we will know if we really have to worry or not. In addition, afterwards, there are enourmous problems of clean up and that could take years.

Question from David Warren: Can you clarify about the contamination of food and water?
Sir John: We have been working with our colleagues in DEFRA and the food standards agency in the UK. The message is to avoid food grown around the region of the plant of course. Normal sewage filtration processes take out radioactivity. If this was dangerous to anyone outside of Fukushima, the Japanese authorities would react and advise. In Chernobly the risks were significant - more dramatic and worrying, but even the risks were negliible for water because of filtration. Bottled water is always safe. Any problems related to tap water will not be connected with radiation but rather the sewage coming from broken pipes. In conclusion, microbiology is more of a concern than radiation. As for food in shops - in cartons, tins, bottles or boxes, there is no problem whatsoever. It would be unwise to eat food produced from gardens in the region. Anything left in the open air in Fukushima, dont eat.

Q: You now advise to "consider leaving" - at what stage would you change that to "leave"?
Sir John: Only in the worst case scenarios. The reason we said "consider leaving" - there are major disruptions to transportation and supply chain in the whole of Japan. We are NOT advising that people leave due to the risk of radiation. Even IF a plume were to reach Tokyo, it would not pose major health risks.

Q: What does plausible worst case mean? Is there an implausible worst case?
Sir John: Implausible - all reactors and all ponds go up at the same time and extreme weather conditions bring the plume to Tokyo; it's not sensible to consider this.

Q: How do we know if the Japanese government is telling the whole story?
Sir John: There would be a series of explosions at the reactors - the Japanese government cannot hide that if it were to be the case.

Q: Why is the French giving different advice?
Sir John: Their advice is not based on science.

Q: Any reason for people in Tokyo to take potassium iodide? Children, pregnant mothers?
Sir John: The Health Protection Agency is on the line. If we are looking at the "worst case scenario" it would be sensible for pregnant women, children and nursing mothers to take stabilising drugs as their thyroids are more sensitive radioactive iodine. However there is no need for anyone in Tokyo to take these drugs now. If necessary, there would be plenty of warning for people in Tokyo to take the tablets.

Finally, we are continuing to monitor this situation every day, with nuclear and health experts."


Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Update on Japan's Nuclear Position- Wednesday 16th March

This is a statement issued through the British Chamber of Commerce (BCCJ) from the British Government's Chief Scientific Officer Professor John Beddington with regard to the developments following the explosion at Fukushima nuclear plant. It is long, but very much worth reading

"What I’m going to do is go into a bit of a stream of consciousness about how we see the situation and then I’ll talk about what would be a reasonable worst case, what we think is the most likely case, but also, you know,[unclear] all the time. The basic situation is, you know, is the Japanese are trying to keep the reactors cool by pumping sea water that will keep the temperature down; that’s their first line of defence. And up to now that’s been working… reasonably well. Basically the reactor lies within a large containment vessel. But if it isn’t cooled particularly well, then the pressure in the containment vessel goes up and it reaches a level where it can’t cope. At that stage the Japanese authorities deliberately release a mixture of steam and hydrogen gas and so on into the atmosphere. This is really quite modest amounts of radioactive material and it’s not likely, by and large, one shouldn’t be concerned about it.
It appears however that from this morning’s results that one of the containment vessels may be somewhat cracked. That’s new information that came through I think like 5 in the morning Japan time. The situation is still much the same. What they’re going to continue to try to do is keep the temperature low, keep the pressure within the containment vessels within those tolerance limits. That will involve very limited amounts of radioactive material going out. Now that’s what is I think is happening at the moment. Now the first thing to say about that is do we have any concerns now in terms of human health. Well the answer is yes we do, but only in the immediate vicinity of the reactors. So the 20 kilometre exclusion zone the Japanese have actually imposed is sensible and proportionate. If they extended out a little bit more to 30 kms, that is well within the sort of parameters that we would think are extremely safe.
Let me now talk about what would be a reasonable worst case scenario. If the Japanese fail to keep the reactors cool and fail to keep the pressure in the containment vessels at an appropriate level, you can get this, you know, the dramatic word “meltdown”. But what does that actually mean? What a meltdown involves is the basic reactor core melts, and as it melts, nuclear material will fall through to the floor of the container. There it will react with concrete and other materials … that is likely… remember this is the reasonable worst case, we don’t think anything worse is going to happen. In this reasonable worst case you get an explosion. You get some radioactive material going up to about 500 metres up into the air. Now, that’s really serious, but it’s serious again for the local area. It’s not serious for elsewhere even if you get a combination of that explosion it would only have nuclear material going in to the air up to about 500 metres. If you then couple that with the worst possible weather situation i.e. prevailing weather taking radioactive material in the direction of Greater Tokyo and you had maybe rainfall which would bring the radioactive material down do we have a problem? The answer is unequivocally no. Absolutely no issue. The problems are within 30 km of the reactor. And to give you a flavour for that, when Chernobyl had a massive fire at the graphite core, material was going up not just 500 metres but to 30,000 feet. It was lasting not for the odd hour or so but lasted months, and that was putting nuclear radioactive material up into the upper atmosphere for a very long period of time. But even in the case of Chernobyl, the exclusion zone that they had was about 30 kilometres. And in that exclusion zone, outside that, there is no evidence whatsoever to indicate people had problems from the radiation. The problems with Chernobyl were people were continuing to drink the water, continuing to eat vegetables and so on and that was where the problems came from. That’s not going to be the case here. So what I would really re-emphasise is that this is very problematic for the area and the immediate vicinity and one has to have concerns for the people working there. Beyond that 20 or 30 kilometres, it’s really not an issue for health."


View the full transcript here;
http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=News&id=566799182

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Further Update on Japan's Nuclear Position

Following on from my message yesterday evening, please see US Ambassador Roos statement below, that is in line with the BCCJ report in my previous posting;

"March 15, 2011 02:30

Today our hearts remain with our Japanese friends who, after suffering this devastating tragedy just four days ago, have to undertake recovery and reconstruction and address the ongoing nuclear emergency.

We understand that many of you are anxious and have questions in the shadow of the Fukushima emergency, since we are in the midst of a complex, constantly changing, and unpredictable situation. In this fluid situation, our commitment to our citizens is to accumulate accurate information and assess it sufficiently in order to make important judgments.

Since the first reports of trouble with the reactors, American nuclear experts have worked around the clock to analyze data, monitor developments, and provide clear assessments on the potential dangers. While at times we have had only limited access to information, I am personally committed to assuring that our experts have as much access and information as possible, and the necessary resources to understand the situation. I have personally been deeply engaged in these efforts.

After a careful analysis of data, radiation levels, and damage assessments of all units at Fukushima, our experts are in agreement with the response and measures taken by Japanese technicians, including their recommended 20kms radius for evacuation and additional shelter-in-place recommendations out to 30kms.

Let me also address reports of very low levels of radiation outside the evacuation area detected by U.S. and Japanese sensitive instrumentation. This bears very careful monitoring, which we are doing. If we assess that the radiation poses a threat to public health, we will share that information and provide relevant guidance immediately.

The United States will continue to work around the clock to provide precise and up-to-date information supported by expert analysis to ensure the safety and security of our citizens and to help Japan in its time of great need. U.S. citizens in need of emergency assistance should send an e-mail to
JapanEmergencyUSC@state.gov with detailed information about their location and contact information, and monitor the U.S. Department of State website at travel.state.gov."

Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.

Update on the Japan's Nuclear Postion

Over the past 24-48 hours in the Expatriate Community in Japan we have witnessed an exodus of our clients to overseas locations in light of the situation with the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants. We are also now witnessing an exodus of people (both foreign and Japanese) out of the Tokyo region towards Nagoya, Osaka, Kobe and other Kansai areas. All of this is to be expected, and is perhaps sensible behaviour on the part of the companies and people involved, to move quickly in a very uncertain situation.

However, I have just received the following report through the British Chamber of Commerce and the British Embassy that dispells any need to panic or any threats of catastrophic disaster. Please take a look at the following and feel at ease that things are slowly being brought under control;

"Update on Japan’s Nuclear Power station situation

March 15th 2011, 17.00

Telephone briefing from Sir John Beddington, the UK’s Chief Scientific adviser and Hilary Walker Deputy Director Emergency Preparedness at the Department of Health.

“Unequivocally, Tokyo will not be affected by the radiation fallout of explosions that have occurred or may occur at the Fukushima nuclear power stations.”

The danger area is limited to within the 30 kilometer evacuation zone and no one will be allowed to enter this area other than those directly involved in the emergency procedures currently being undertaken at both Fukushima 1 & 2.

Sir John went on to answer a series of questions including a comparison between Chernobyl and Japan. He said, “they are entirely different. Chernobyl exploded and there was a subsequent fire with radioactive materials being launched 30,000 ft into the air”. The maximum height of any Fukushima explosions would be no more than 500 metres.

“The amount of radiation that has been released is miniscule and would have to be in the order of 1,000 or more for it to be a threat to humans” This was confirmed by Hilary Walker.

Sir John went on to say that the Japanese authorities are doing their best to keep the reactors cooled and that this is a continuing operation. All workers on site dealing with the emergency are being fully decontaminated at the end of each shift.

When asked how reliable the information coming from the Japanese authorities was as to radiation levels he said, “this cannot be fabricated and the Japanese authorities are posting all the readings on the recognized international information sites which they are obliged to do. Independent verification shows that the data provided are accurate”.

In answer to a specific question from the Head of the BritishSchool in Tokyo, Sir John Beddington and Hilary Walker said that there was no reason at all for the school to be closed unless there were other issues such as power outages and transport problems.

David Fitton, First Minister at the British Embassy in Tokyo moderated the teleconference and confirmed that a transcript of the briefing will be available on the Embassy website later today."


Keep safe and stay calm!

Our thoughts, prayers, and hopes for a quick recovery are with all those who have been affected by this crisis.